Maple Leafs vs Flames Preview: Can Toronto Stretch the Streak to Five in Calgary?

Maple Leafs vs Flames Preview: Can Toronto Stretch the Streak to Five in Calgary?

Toronto arrives at the Scotiabank Saddledome on Monday night riding a four-game winning streak, and the Calgary Flames have won three in a row of their own. Puck drop is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (6:30 p.m. MT).

Game Details

How Toronto Got Here

The Leafs picked up their biggest result of the season on Saturday, a 7-2 win over the Oilers in Edmonton. Anthony Stolarz stopped 30 shots, and the scoring came from up and down the lineup: Jack Roslovic, Auston Matthews, Troy Stecher, Zack MacEwen and Vinni Lettieri all found the net.

William Nylander scored twice, and his second goal was the 300th of his NHL career. He reached the mark in 763 games, which makes him the fourth-fastest Swedish player to get there. He now has eight goals this season.

Matthews Is One Point From 800

Auston Matthews needs a single point to reach 800 for his career. That would make him the fastest player in Maple Leafs history to hit the number, and the third-quickest American skater in NHL history. He has nine goals through 13 games, and he and Kirill Marchenko both carry a five-game road point streak into Calgary.

Toronto’s special teams are part of the story, too:

• The power play is clicking at roughly 30 percent
• The penalty kill had stopped 30 straight opposing power plays before Edmonton scored late on Saturday
• Toronto is 12-2-1 at Rogers Place since the Oilers moved into the arena, so the Edmonton result fits a pattern

What Calgary Needs to Do

The Flames have turned a slow start into a three-game run, and they are home. Their path against a deeper Toronto forward group is a tighter, slower game with fewer odd-man rushes. Matthew Coronato has two goals in 10 games, and Aydar Suniev and Joel Farabee both show up in goal-scorer projections for this matchup.

Calgary has been getting shots on net but has struggled to convert them, and keeping Toronto’s power play off the ice will matter as much as anything at even strength.

Odds Snapshot

Lines move during the day and vary by sportsbook, so check the current price before placing any wager. Early Monday, the market looked like this:

Win probability models land between roughly 52 and 57 percent for Toronto, so the favorite’s price is modest rather than lopsided.

Totals and Player Props

The total has two sides to it. Toronto and its opponent have combined for more than 6.5 goals in eight of 13 games this season, while Calgary’s games have gone over that number in only four of 10. One pregame model leans under 6.5, another projection puts the game at 6.6 goals, and the two teams average a combined 6.2 goals per game.

Anytime goal-scorer pricing early Monday:

Matthews and Nylander also lead the model projections for anytime goals, at about 38 and 37 percent. A point prop on Matthews ties directly to the 800-point storyline, since a single assist or goal gets him there.

What to Watch

• Whether Toronto’s power play gets chances against a Flames team trying to stay disciplined
• How Calgary handles the Matthews and Nylander line at five-on-five
• The first period, since a quick Toronto lead would force the Flames away from their preferred slow tempo

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